Passive Holdings
Portfolio
Long-term passive allocation — the foundation beneath active trades
Executive Summary
Portfolio 4.0 is a conviction-weighted hybrid portfolio built for long-term compounding with deliberate exposure to the most durable structural themes of the next decade - AI infrastructure, semiconductors, large-cap tech, and crypto. It is not a passive index hug. Every position was chosen intentionally.
Philosophy
The core thesis: the S&P 500 alone leaves compounding on the table. This portfolio overweights semiconductors and technology - the sectors most likely to drive outsized returns through the AI supercycle - while using small-cap value (FISVX) as a low-correlation shock absorber when Nasdaq drawdowns hit. Crypto (10%) captures asymmetric upside. The 10% Treasury cash sleeve is not dead money - it exists to be deployed aggressively on 30%+ drawdowns in core positions.
Estimated CAGR
~17.4%
~17.4% blended (historical backtest estimate). Breakdown: FXAIX/QQQ foundation ~12-14%, FSELX semi alpha ~20-25% historically, Compounders ~15-18%, Crypto sleeve +asymmetric upside/drag depending on cycle, FISVX value factor ~10-12%.
Expected Drawdown
-38% to -48%
Expect -38% to -48% in severe bear markets (2022-style). The crypto sleeve adds tail risk - a crypto winter can shave 2-4 additional percentage points from peak. FISVX partially offsets Nasdaq-specific drawdowns. The cash sleeve provides dry powder to buy the dip.
Key Risks
- ⚠Semiconductor concentration risk - FSELX + QQQ + Compounders means ~45%+ indirect NVDA/AVGO exposure. An AI capex pullback hits hard.
- ⚠Crypto is high-volatility - 10% allocation can behave like 20-30% of portfolio volatility.
- ⚠Active funds (FSELX, FSPTX) carry manager risk and higher expense ratios vs. pure index.
- ⚠Heavy US/tech tilt means underperformance if value or international stocks lead for an extended period.
Things to Think About
This portfolio was designed for someone with a 5-10 year horizon who believes AI and semiconductors are the defining investment theme of this era, wants meaningful crypto exposure without going all-in, and has the discipline to hold through -40% drawdowns without panic-selling. If you can't stomach seeing this down 40%, the Simple Four with its larger cash buffer may suit you better.
Top 20 Look-Through Holdings
Effective exposure after looking through all ETFs. Each ETF is 20% of the portfolio — weights reflect each underlying holding scaled to portfolio level. As of May 4, 2026.
| # | Name | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Microsoft | 5.01% |
| 2 | Amazon | 4.53% |
| 3 | Broadcom | 4.50% |
| 4 | NVIDIA | 4.43% |
| 5 | Alphabet | 4.42% |
| 6 | Meta Platforms | 2.85% |
| 7 | Apple | 2.67% |
| 8 | Advanced Micro Devices | 1.89% |
| 9 | Micron Technology | 1.88% |
| 10 | Intel | 1.53% |
| 11 | Applied Materials | 0.96% |
| 12 | Marvell Technology | 0.91% |
| 13 | Tesla | 0.84% |
| 14 | Texas Instruments | 0.80% |
| 15 | Lam Research | 0.75% |
| 16 | KLA Corp | 0.69% |
| 17 | Analog Devices | 0.66% |
| 18 | Monolithic Power Systems | 0.63% |
| 19 | Qualcomm | 0.60% |
| 20 | NXP Semiconductors | 0.59% |
FXAIX
S&P 500 Index Fund
Core equity backbone. 0.015% ER - lowest cost S&P 500 exposure. DCA monthly.
FSELX
Fidelity Select Electronics
Active semi management. Already holds NVDA, AVGO, AMAT, ASML heavily - no need to add individually.
QQQ
Nasdaq-100 ETF
Mega-cap tech and growth tilt. Complements FXAIX with higher-beta Nasdaq exposure.
FUMBX
Fidelity Treasury Fund
Short-term Treasury fund. Safety buffer - deploy on 30%+ drawdowns in core positions.
FISVX
Fidelity Small Cap Value Index
Value factor, low correlation to tech. The add most investors skip. Portfolio shock absorber during Nasdaq drawdowns.
SOL
Solana
Asymmetric upside sleeve. High-conviction Layer 1.
BTC
Bitcoin
Asymmetric upside sleeve. Strategic crypto reserve.
ETH
Ethereum
Asymmetric upside sleeve. Smart contract platform exposure.
MSFT
Microsoft
Best-in-class compounder. Azure + AI Copilot = durable double-digit growth.
AMZN
Amazon
AWS re-accelerating. Advertising + Prime flywheel still early innings.
FSPTX
Fidelity Select Technology
Active tech sector fund. Broader tech coverage beyond semis.
BOTZ
Global X Robotics & AI ETF
Robotics and AI automation theme. Industrial + software exposure.
WCLD
WisdomTree Cloud Computing
Pure-play cloud software names. High ARR, sticky SaaS moats.
GOOGL
Alphabet
Search moat + YouTube + GCP. Cheapest of the mega-cap AI plays on earnings.
META
Meta Platforms
Ad targeting + Llama AI + 3B+ daily users. Efficiency era delivering margin expansion.
AVGO
Broadcom
Custom AI ASIC chips + VMware integration. NVDA excluded - FSELX already holds it heavily.
HERO
VanEck Video Gaming & Esports
Video games and esports. Long-term entertainment secular growth.
Last updated: March 10, 2026 · Annual rebalance every January. Deploy cash sleeve on 30%+ drawdowns. Trim any position drifting >5pts from target.
Allocation — Portfolio 4.0 - Hybrid Build
Visual Breakdown
Strategy Note
This is the passive foundation — not touched for trades. Active swing trade positions are separate and tracked in Ideas.
Rebalanced quarterly. DCA into SPY monthly.