Passive Holdings

Portfolio

Long-term passive allocation — the foundation beneath active trades

Executive Summary

Portfolio 4.0 is a conviction-weighted hybrid portfolio built for long-term compounding with deliberate exposure to the most durable structural themes of the next decade — AI infrastructure, semiconductors, large-cap tech, and crypto. It is not a passive index hug. Every position was chosen intentionally.

Philosophy

The core thesis: the S&P 500 alone leaves compounding on the table. This portfolio overweights semiconductors and technology — the sectors most likely to drive outsized returns through the AI supercycle — while using small-cap value (FISVX) as a low-correlation shock absorber when Nasdaq drawdowns hit. Crypto (10%) captures asymmetric upside. The 10% Treasury cash sleeve is not dead money — it exists to be deployed aggressively on 30%+ drawdowns in core positions.

Estimated CAGR

~17.4%

~17.4% blended (historical backtest estimate). Breakdown: FXAIX/QQQ foundation ~12–14%, FSELX semi alpha ~20–25% historically, Compounders ~15–18%, Crypto sleeve +asymmetric upside/drag depending on cycle, FISVX value factor ~10–12%.

Expected Drawdown

-38% to -48%

Expect -38% to -48% in severe bear markets (2022-style). The crypto sleeve adds tail risk — a crypto winter can shave 2–4 additional percentage points from peak. FISVX partially offsets Nasdaq-specific drawdowns. The cash sleeve provides dry powder to buy the dip.

Key Risks

  • ⚠Semiconductor concentration risk — FSELX + QQQ + Compounders means ~45%+ indirect NVDA/AVGO exposure. An AI capex pullback hits hard.
  • ⚠Crypto is high-volatility — 10% allocation can behave like 20–30% of portfolio volatility.
  • ⚠Active funds (FSELX, FSPTX) carry manager risk and higher expense ratios vs. pure index.
  • ⚠Heavy US/tech tilt means underperformance if value or international stocks lead for an extended period.

Things to Think About

This portfolio was designed for someone with a 5–10 year horizon who believes AI and semiconductors are the defining investment theme of this era, wants meaningful crypto exposure without going all-in, and has the discipline to hold through -40% drawdowns without panic-selling. If you can't stomach seeing this down 40%, the Simple Four with its larger cash buffer may suit you better.

Sort:
F

FXAIX

S&P 500 Index Fund

Equity
22%

Core equity backbone. 0.015% ER — lowest cost S&P 500 exposure. DCA monthly.

F

FSELX

Fidelity Select Electronics

Equity
15%

Active semi management. Already holds NVDA, AVGO, AMAT, ASML heavily — no need to add individually.

Q

QQQ

Nasdaq-100 ETF

Equity
12%

Mega-cap tech and growth tilt. Complements FXAIX with higher-beta Nasdaq exposure.

F

FUMBX

Fidelity Treasury Fund

Cash
10%

Short-term Treasury fund. Safety buffer — deploy on 30%+ drawdowns in core positions.

F

FISVX

Fidelity Small Cap Value Index

Equity
8%

Value factor, low correlation to tech. The add most investors skip. Portfolio shock absorber during Nasdaq drawdowns.

S

SOL

Solana

Crypto
4%

Asymmetric upside sleeve. High-conviction Layer 1.

B

BTC

Bitcoin

Crypto
3%

Asymmetric upside sleeve. Strategic crypto reserve.

E

ETH

Ethereum

Crypto
3%

Asymmetric upside sleeve. Smart contract platform exposure.

M

MSFT

Microsoft

Equity
3%

Best-in-class compounder. Azure + AI Copilot = durable double-digit growth.

A

AMZN

Amazon

Equity
3%

AWS re-accelerating. Advertising + Prime flywheel still early innings.

F

FSPTX

Fidelity Select Technology

Equity
3%

Active tech sector fund. Broader tech coverage beyond semis.

B

BOTZ

Global X Robotics & AI ETF

Equity
3%

Robotics and AI automation theme. Industrial + software exposure.

W

WCLD

WisdomTree Cloud Computing

Equity
3%

Pure-play cloud software names. High ARR, sticky SaaS moats.

G

GOOGL

Alphabet

Equity
2%

Search moat + YouTube + GCP. Cheapest of the mega-cap AI plays on earnings.

M

META

Meta Platforms

Equity
2%

Ad targeting + Llama AI + 3B+ daily users. Efficiency era delivering margin expansion.

A

AVGO

Broadcom

Equity
2%

Custom AI ASIC chips + VMware integration. NVDA excluded — FSELX already holds it heavily.

H

HERO

VanEck Video Gaming & Esports

Equity
2%

Video games and esports. Long-term entertainment secular growth.

Total100%

Last updated: March 10, 2026 · Annual rebalance every January. Deploy cash sleeve on 30%+ drawdowns. Trim any position drifting >5pts from target.

Allocation — Portfolio 4.0 — Hybrid Build

Visual Breakdown

FXAIX
22%
FSELX
15%
QQQ
12%
FUMBX
10%
FISVX
8%
SOL
4%
BTC
3%
ETH
3%
MSFT
3%
AMZN
3%
FSPTX
3%
BOTZ
3%
WCLD
3%
GOOGL
2%
META
2%
AVGO
2%
HERO
2%

Strategy Note

This is the passive foundation — not touched for trades. Active swing trade positions are separate and tracked in Ideas.

Rebalanced quarterly. DCA into SPY monthly.