Research Archive
Reports
Deep research, trade setups, and weekly market notes — 27 reports filed
Weekly Macro Brief — September 28, 2026
Core PCE stalled at +2.7% YoY, GDP printed +3.0% final — the higher-for-longer regime repriced hard last week (TLT -3.03%, VIX +14%). This week: MU earnings Wed (heavy bearish options flow warning) and NFP Fri Oct 2 is the year-end rate-path binary. Active setups: NVDA (large institutional sweep call, AI conviction), TMDX (squeeze + XLV tailwind), META (near-term Oct 2 contrarian bet).
Weekly Macro Brief — September 21, 2026
FOMC held rates steady Sep 17 — markets exhaled, tech led (+2.89% XLK), crypto surged (BTC +4.54%, SOL +5.05%). Core PCE Friday is the week's binary: hot print reverses everything, cool print targets new ATHs. Active setups: CHPT squeeze, QQQ continuation, RXRX biotech. VIX 14.81 — complacency or calm before the storm.
Weekly Macro Brief — September 14, 2026
Week of Sept 14: China credit collapse (CNY 60B vs 400B expected), FOMC Wed is the inflection point, Energy decoupling from risk-off, AMD 4-source convergence play.
Weekly Macro Brief — September 7, 2026
NFP +162K Goldilocks sets up the FOMC rate-cut path — now it all hinges on Friday Sep 11 CPI. Top setups: AAPL (multi-source convergence, score 2.59), IWM (institutional $1.3M RUTW sweep, small-cap rotation trade), CHPT (+82% squeeze momentum). PPI Thursday is the early warning signal.
Weekly Macro Brief — September 7, 2026
NFP blowout killed September cuts and sparked rate hike debate — CPI Friday (Sep 11) is the week's binary event. AAPL leads Garita convergence (2.59, 4 sources); CHPT squeeze already in motion (+82% 5d); XLF and XLU are the defensive plays for a higher-for-longer world.
Weekly Macro Brief — August 31, 2026
NFP Friday is the week's binary event — Core PCE came in cool last week (+0.2% vs +0.3% expected) keeping September cut odds at ~70%, but the bond market wants payroll confirmation before fully committing. Top setups: AMZN ($921K Nov call sweep, highest Garita conviction), PCG ($661K bullish flow), PARA (2,583% float short squeeze coiled at $1.11). XLK and IWM lagging while XLC and XLY lead — tech internal divergence (AMZN bullish, MSFT/MU bearish puts active).
Weekly Macro Brief — August 24, 2026
XLK worst sector (-3.68% weekly) as Healthcare leads (+4.53%); Core PCE Wednesday is the binary event — consensus +0.3%, a cool print locks September cut. Top setups: IBIT institutional sweep ($1.75M), TEX floor trade ($3.1M), NVAX squeeze with +11% 5d momentum.
Weekly Macro Brief — August 24, 2026
XLK worst sector (-3.68%) while Healthcare leads +4.53% on $14.875M MRNA call flow; Core PCE Friday is the week's binary circuit breaker — cool print locks September cut, hot print reprices equities sharply lower. Top setups: FCX copper sweep ($85 target), NBIX biotech accumulation, IBIT BTC ETF momentum.
Weekly Macro Brief — August 17, 2026
Cool CPI/PPI last week pushed September cut odds to ~75%; this week's FOMC Minutes (Wed) are the circuit breaker. NY Fed Manufacturing beat this morning (20.6 vs 15.6 prior). Top setups: PARA squeeze (6,583% SI), ANET institutional call flow ($3.15M), MSFT 6-source convergence. Energy leading (+3.12%) alongside Tech (+2.18%) — rare double tailwind.
Weekly Macro Brief — August 10, 2026
CPI Wednesday is the week's binary event — cool print unlocks September cut, rips QQQ/TLT; NVDA ($223.96) multi-source convergence, RH active squeeze (42% SI), and TEAM institutional accumulation are the top setups as XLK surges +5.58% and gold approaches $400.
Weekly Macro Brief — August 3, 2026
FOMC soft hold + Q2 GDP +2.1% + AAPL earnings beat validated the bull thesis last week; VIX at 15.95 signals complacency as NFP Friday becomes the week's sole binary event — MSFT convergence 2.89 and MU congressional cluster are the top setups.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 27, 2026
Defensive rotation dominates as mega-cap tech earnings disappoint (XLC -4.1%, XLY -4.5%); FOMC Wednesday is the week's fulcrum with Powell presser the real mover — energy (XLE +2.9%) and utilities (XLU +3.0%) are the plays, NBIS $3.5M put sweep flags near-term bearish risk.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 20, 2026
Tech rotates out (-3.1% XLK), energy leads (+1.7% XLE), ECB decision Tuesday is the week's marquee catalyst. Small-cap squeeze conditions building; AAPL earnings hedge flow visible.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 20, 2026
Hot CPI June killed September cut odds, hammering QQQ -$30 on the week while XLE/XLF held firm. TSLA earnings Wednesday is the tech barometer; RH squeeze at 42% float and SNDK $1.5M call sweep round out the top setups.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 13, 2026
Hot PPI (+0.3% MoM) and ISM Services Prices at 71.3 put CPI Tuesday in the hot seat — the week's binary event. Energy leads sector rotation (+3.67%) on OPEC catalyst; META shows 4-source Garita convergence. Top setups: META calls pre-earnings, XLE momentum trade, ETSY squeeze candidate.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 13, 2026
CPI Tuesday 8:30 AM ET is the binary event for July — VIX +8.72% at open signals pre-print anxiety. Top trades: META convergence long (4 Garita sources), XLE inflation hedge (+3.67% WoW leader), IWM post-cool-CPI call spreads. Energy and mega-cap tech lead; fade industrials and materials.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 6, 2026
Strong NFP drove a risk-on week (SPY +2.17%, ETH +11.8%, SOL +10.8%) while services inflation re-accelerated (ISM Prices 71.3). This week: FOMC Minutes Wednesday and PPI Friday determine whether the Goldilocks narrative survives. Top setups: XLF into bank earnings, TSLA pre-earnings sweep (score 90), RH squeeze (39% float).
Weekly Macro Brief — June 29, 2026
MU guidance miss + sticky PCE send XLK -5.75% while defensives surge (XLV +6.85%). This week: NFP June drops Friday July 3 into a 1:00 PM early close — maximum binary, minimum liquidity. Top setups: RH squeeze (score 78, 57% float), STX bullish sweep, SOXX put flow institutional signal (score 95).
Weekly Macro Brief — June 22, 2026
Post-FOMC clarity sends QQQ +2.51% Friday. Binary double incoming: MU earnings Tuesday + PCE Friday. XLI only sector green on week; energy bleeding out. Top setups: MU binary play, RH 61% short float squeeze, NTLA +29% 5d momentum.
Weekly Macro Brief — June 20, 2026
Warsh Fed holds rates, VIX crushes to 16.4, and institutional money pours into semis pre-MU earnings. This week's binary events: Micron reports Tuesday night, PCE inflation lands Friday. Long tech, avoid energy.
Weekly Macro Brief — June 8, 2026
NFP +175K torched July rate cut hopes, sending XLK -7.9% while defensives surged. CPI Wednesday is the week's binary reset — cool print reloads tech, hot print extends the pain. Top setups: TSLA 4-source convergence, MU institutional sweeps pre-earnings, RH squeeze at 57% short float.
Weekly Macro Brief — June 2, 2026
AI supercycle week confirmed: MRVL +46%, ORCL +28%, UMAC +77%. JOLTS blows past estimates at 7.618M, killing July rate cut talk. NFP Friday is the binary risk — full sector rotation map, watchlist setups in MRVL/AMD/ORCL, and a hard look at Bill's problem positions.
Space & Drone Stocks — Top 10 Deep Dive for 2026
20 stocks screened down to the top 10 space and top 10 US drone names worth owning in 2026. Live prices, verified numbers, analyst targets, and direct verdicts — no fluff. Top 3 picks: KTOS (+76%), AVAV (+54%), AXON (+67%) — all profitable, all 50%+ off their peaks.
Portfolio 4.0 — The Hybrid Build
After comparing three portfolio architectures side by side, Portfolio 4.0 emerges as the recommended build — an index foundation with individual name alpha, real diversification via small-cap value, and a 10% crypto sleeve. ~17.4% blended CAGR with meaningful drawdown protection.
Operation Epic Fury — Ceasefire Snapback Playbook
WTI at $85, VIX at 25.5, and a war premium baked into everything from airlines to tire manufacturers. We built the full ceasefire snapback playbook — ranked plays across 7 sectors, options structures that actually work with elevated IV, and the names nobody's talking about.
Week of March 3, 2026 — Operation Initiated
First week of operations. Research infrastructure stood up, initial market scan completed. The operation is live.