Research Archive
Reports
Deep research, trade setups, and weekly market notes — 23 reports filed
Weekly Macro Brief — August 10, 2026
CPI Wednesday is the week's binary event — cool print unlocks September cut, rips QQQ/TLT; NVDA ($223.96) multi-source convergence, RH active squeeze (42% SI), and TEAM institutional accumulation are the top setups as XLK surges +5.58% and gold approaches $400.
Weekly Macro Brief — August 3, 2026
FOMC soft hold + Q2 GDP +2.1% + AAPL earnings beat validated the bull thesis last week; VIX at 15.95 signals complacency as NFP Friday becomes the week's sole binary event — MSFT convergence 2.89 and MU congressional cluster are the top setups.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 27, 2026
Defensive rotation dominates as mega-cap tech earnings disappoint (XLC -4.1%, XLY -4.5%); FOMC Wednesday is the week's fulcrum with Powell presser the real mover — energy (XLE +2.9%) and utilities (XLU +3.0%) are the plays, NBIS $3.5M put sweep flags near-term bearish risk.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 20, 2026
Tech rotates out (-3.1% XLK), energy leads (+1.7% XLE), ECB decision Tuesday is the week's marquee catalyst. Small-cap squeeze conditions building; AAPL earnings hedge flow visible.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 20, 2026
Hot CPI June killed September cut odds, hammering QQQ -$30 on the week while XLE/XLF held firm. TSLA earnings Wednesday is the tech barometer; RH squeeze at 42% float and SNDK $1.5M call sweep round out the top setups.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 13, 2026
Hot PPI (+0.3% MoM) and ISM Services Prices at 71.3 put CPI Tuesday in the hot seat — the week's binary event. Energy leads sector rotation (+3.67%) on OPEC catalyst; META shows 4-source Garita convergence. Top setups: META calls pre-earnings, XLE momentum trade, ETSY squeeze candidate.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 13, 2026
CPI Tuesday 8:30 AM ET is the binary event for July — VIX +8.72% at open signals pre-print anxiety. Top trades: META convergence long (4 Garita sources), XLE inflation hedge (+3.67% WoW leader), IWM post-cool-CPI call spreads. Energy and mega-cap tech lead; fade industrials and materials.
Weekly Macro Brief — July 6, 2026
Strong NFP drove a risk-on week (SPY +2.17%, ETH +11.8%, SOL +10.8%) while services inflation re-accelerated (ISM Prices 71.3). This week: FOMC Minutes Wednesday and PPI Friday determine whether the Goldilocks narrative survives. Top setups: XLF into bank earnings, TSLA pre-earnings sweep (score 90), RH squeeze (39% float).
Weekly Macro Brief — June 29, 2026
MU guidance miss + sticky PCE send XLK -5.75% while defensives surge (XLV +6.85%). This week: NFP June drops Friday July 3 into a 1:00 PM early close — maximum binary, minimum liquidity. Top setups: RH squeeze (score 78, 57% float), STX bullish sweep, SOXX put flow institutional signal (score 95).
Weekly Macro Brief — June 22, 2026
Post-FOMC clarity sends QQQ +2.51% Friday. Binary double incoming: MU earnings Tuesday + PCE Friday. XLI only sector green on week; energy bleeding out. Top setups: MU binary play, RH 61% short float squeeze, NTLA +29% 5d momentum.
Weekly Macro Brief — June 20, 2026
Warsh Fed holds rates, VIX crushes to 16.4, and institutional money pours into semis pre-MU earnings. This week's binary events: Micron reports Tuesday night, PCE inflation lands Friday. Long tech, avoid energy.
Slow Bleed Playbook — Top 10 Ways to Profit from a Gradual Market Decline
With NFP hot and July rate cuts dead, the market faces a 3-6 month grinding decline of 5-15%. This playbook details 10 specific strategies — from QQQ/XLK bear put spreads to defensive rotation into XLU/XLP and volatility insurance via VXX calls — to profit from higher-for-longer compression. Each play is labeled EVERGREEN or CURRENT CONDITIONS SPECIFIC with exact tickers, strike guidance, and sizing.
Weekly Macro Brief — June 8, 2026
NFP +175K torched July rate cut hopes, sending XLK -7.9% while defensives surged. CPI Wednesday is the week's binary reset — cool print reloads tech, hot print extends the pain. Top setups: TSLA 4-source convergence, MU institutional sweeps pre-earnings, RH squeeze at 57% short float.
Weekly Macro Brief — June 2, 2026
AI supercycle week confirmed: MRVL +46%, ORCL +28%, UMAC +77%. JOLTS blows past estimates at 7.618M, killing July rate cut talk. NFP Friday is the binary risk — full sector rotation map, watchlist setups in MRVL/AMD/ORCL, and a hard look at Bill's problem positions.
🎯 The Big Short 2026: 9 Asymmetric Bets That Pay Multiples on a Crisis
Asymmetric tail-risk trades modeled on the 2007 Big Short. Risk ~5% of your portfolio in premium across 9 structured positions targeting private credit, CLO stress, leveraged loan defaults, CRE/regional bank blowup, valuation reset, and vol explosion. Private credit blowout alone: 5-11x on deployed capital. Full crash: 19-28x. Updated June 1: 9 trades final (FSCO dropped, HYG weighted up to 23%, KRE added for CRE thesis).
🛡️ Hedge Allocation: Top 10 Capital Preservation & Hedging Vehicles
Ranked guide to deploying ~1/3 of your portfolio into capital preservation and hedging vehicles. Covers cash alternatives (SGOV, USFR), gold, inflation protection (VTIP), equity put spreads, rates hedges (TLT puts, TBF), and direct credit shorts (HYG puts, BDC puts). Model allocation by scenario probability. Updated June 1 to remove specific portfolio size references.
Space & Drone Stocks — Top 10 Deep Dive for 2026
20 stocks screened down to the top 10 space and top 10 US drone names worth owning in 2026. Live prices, verified numbers, analyst targets, and direct verdicts — no fluff. Top 3 picks: KTOS (+76%), AVAV (+54%), AXON (+67%) — all profitable, all 50%+ off their peaks.
Apex Weekly Playbook — NVDA Earnings Supernova + AI Capex Confirmed | May 25, 2026
NVDA dropped a monster Q1 print ($81.6B revenue, 85% YoY, $80B buyback, $91B Q2 guidance) confirming the AI capex supercycle; top plays this 4-day holiday-shortened week are AMD (highest Garita convergence score, 5-source alignment), NVDA (earnings momentum + buyback), and MU (AI memory demand), with PCE Friday as the primary risk event.
Apex Weekly Playbook — Fiscal Reckoning: Vigilantes at the Gate | May 18, 2026
The 30-year Treasury at 5.12% signals bond vigilantes pricing US fiscal risk; energy (DVN, OXY) is the only sector with clean inflows while rate-sensitive names (utilities, REITs, semis) get crushed — top play: DVN powered by extreme 52k-to-2.8k call/put ratio.
Portfolio 4.0 — The Hybrid Build
After comparing three portfolio architectures side by side, Portfolio 4.0 emerges as the recommended build — an index foundation with individual name alpha, real diversification via small-cap value, and a 10% crypto sleeve. ~17.4% blended CAGR with meaningful drawdown protection.
Operation Epic Fury — Ceasefire Snapback Playbook
WTI at $85, VIX at 25.5, and a war premium baked into everything from airlines to tire manufacturers. We built the full ceasefire snapback playbook — ranked plays across 7 sectors, options structures that actually work with elevated IV, and the names nobody's talking about.
Week of March 3, 2026 — Operation Initiated
First week of operations. Research infrastructure stood up, initial market scan completed. The operation is live.